The Vatican’s Real-Life Conclave: Has the Next Pope Already Been Chosen?
The film is meant to be fiction, but with Pope Francis’s health in question and the Vatican quietly preparing for what comes next, it suddenly feels like a glimpse into something much more real
The looming conclave
There’s something unnerving about watching a film that feels like it was written for the exact moment you’re living in.
Conclave, the taut and cerebral thriller adapted from Robert Harris’ novel, is about power, uncertainty, and the quiet maneuvering that happens in rooms the rest of the world never gets to see.
Which makes it all the more eerie when you consider the current state of the Vatican.
Pope Francis, at 88, is battling double pneumonia. His health is precarious, his public appearances infrequent, and the conversations around his successor are no longer whispered—they’re printed in newspapers, analyzed by Vatican insiders, and dissected by believers and non-believers alike.
The race to lead the Catholic Church has, in a way, already begun.
And Conclave, with its layered betrayals, fragile alliances, and the weight of history pressing down on every choice, suddenly feels less like fiction and more like a mirror.
Who are the frontrunners?
Among the potential frontrunners is Cardinal Luis Tagle from the Philippines, a favorite among progressives who see him as a continuation of Pope Francis’s vision for a more inclusive and compassionate church.
Meanwhile, conservative factions have rallied behind Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary, an experienced canon lawyer with a more traditionalist outlook.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy, known for his diplomacy and peace efforts, has also emerged as a strong contender.
The weight of history
Maybe that’s why the film has landed so hard with younger audiences.
For a generation raised on political cynicism, institutional distrust, and a general suspicion of the people in charge, Conclave is less about the pageantry of religious tradition and more about the human drama of leadership.
Who gets to make the decisions that shape the world? And what do they sacrifice along the way?
It’s tempting to view the Vatican as a relic, an institution too ancient to be touched by the currents of modernity.
But power is power. It shifts, it consolidates, and it moves in ways that can be felt even if they can’t always be seen.
If Pope Francis’s condition worsens, if a conclave is called, it won’t just be the devout who are watching.
It will be everyone who understands that leadership—real and lasting leadership—matters.
That the choices made behind closed doors will eventually find their way out into the open.
That history has a way of repeating itself, whether on the silver screen or in the hallowed halls of the Sistine Chapel.
Photos courtesy IMDB
